2025 Economy: Uncertainty Is A Convenient Lie

Economic "Experts" and Their Uncertainties

Okay, so another year, another "expert" panel telling us the economy's future is "uncertain." Give me a break. When isn't it uncertain? Feels like economists have been saying that since, oh, I don't know, the invention of money.

The Usual Suspects Predict the Future

This University of Chicago Booth School of Business thing – "Economic Outlook" – sounds fancy. They're trotting out the usual suspects: professors, consultants, maybe a stray MBA or two. All talking about tariffs, Fed policy, and, of course, AI. Because apparently, no economic forecast is complete without mentioning the robot apocalypse... sorry, I mean, the rise of AI.

Here's what's grinding my gears: they act like these are new problems. Tariffs? Trade wars? We've been doing this dance for centuries. The Fed? They're always "evolving" their policy, which usually means screwing something up and then trying to fix it with more screwing up. And AI? Yeah, it might change things. Or it might just be another overhyped tech bubble waiting to burst. Remember Web3? Anyone? Bueller?

It's like watching a bunch of weather forecasters arguing about whether it's going to rain tomorrow when it's already pouring. Point is: these "experts" are paid to sound smart while telling us things we already kinda know.

The Trade-Off Tango: Lose-Lose Scenarios

The title of their little pow-wow is "Uncertainties and Tradeoffs: Making Sense of the Global Economy." Tradeoffs, huh? That's a nice way of saying "lose-lose scenarios." We raise tariffs, we hurt consumers. We lower interest rates, we risk inflation. We invest in AI, we… well, who knows what the hell that'll do? Probably put us all out of work.

McKinsey's survey says executives are increasingly worried about trade policy. No duh. It's like they're finally realizing that screwing around with global trade has consequences. But get this: they also see it as an "opportunity." What kind of opportunity? An opportunity to exploit the chaos? An opportunity to squeeze more profit out of a broken system? I swear, these guys would sell ice to Eskimos if they thought they could make a buck.

And speaking of McKinsey, they keep showing these graphs. I swear they use the same graphs every year, just with slightly different numbers.

The Pessimism Pendulum Swings Against North America

Everyone's so down on North America. Europe's cautiously optimistic, Asia's resilient... but good ol' US of A? We're apparently headed for the shitter. Rising unemployment, high inflation, weak growth. Sounds about right.

But then again, maybe I'm being too harsh. Maybe these economists actually do have some insight. Maybe they really can predict the future. Or maybe they're just throwing darts at a board and hoping something sticks. Honestly, at this point, I'd trust a magic eight ball more than these so-called experts.

And what's this I read? The World Economic Forum's survey found that a whopping 82% of chief economists consider global uncertainty to be "very high." Well, color me shocked! Next, they'll be telling us that water is wet and the sky is blue. According to the World Economic Forum, uncertainty is the biggest concern among economists.

AI is supposed to drive growth, but almost half of those economists anticipate net job losses. That's the tradeoff, I guess. Progress at the expense of human workers. Sounds like a raw deal to me.

So, What's the Real Story? Nobody Knows!

The real story is that nobody knows what's going to happen. Not the economists, not the CEOs, and definitely not me. We're all just stumbling around in the dark, trying to make sense of a world that's getting more chaotic by the day. So, don't put too much stock in these "economic outlooks." They're just educated guesses, at best. Save your money, buy some canned goods, and hope for the best. Because frankly, we're all gonna need it.